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Handelskriegsszenarien: Umgang mit Volatilität und plötzlicher Risikoaversion
Weil sich unser Inflations- und Wachstumsausblick für die USA seit Anfang 2018 deutlich verbessert hat, haben wir unsere Erwartungen für die US-Staatsanleiherenditen und die anhand von TIPS be-rechnete Breakeven-Inflation angehoben. In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir, was aus unserer Sicht die US-Inflation steigen lässt und erörtern die mögliche geldpolitische Reaktion der Federal Reserve (Fed).
Einige Überraschungen - nun heißt es jedoch erst einmal abwarten
Der Ausblick: Wie viel ist Inflation ist zu viel Inflation?
SUMMARY: As in February, US Treasury yields rose to the point where they ended up rocking markets, but this time the disruption was more visible in the US dollar and emerging markets than in equity markets / We see several factors for the rise: (i) US inflation and crude oil prices hit 2018 highs in April, (ii) US macroeconomic data have been robust enough for the US Federal Reserve to continue normalising its interest-rate policy, and (iii) rates markets have become more concerned about US Treasury debt issuance / The bar is quite high for further interest-rate increases in the near term, but when policy tightening does resume, we think this will not keep equity markets from rallying as long as the growth backdrop remains solid / The stronger USD reflects disappointing economic activity data in the G10 and emerging markets compared to the US. This is consistent with markets pricing in reduced expectations of central bank policy normalisation in Europe and Japan / Further USD strength is possible, but we doubt it can persist in the medium term unless the prospects for growth in the US continue to decouple from those for the rest of the world
Concerns over inflation, less central bank accommodation / trade protectionism escalates / activity data disappoints / reducing equity exposure, macro view unchanged / adding to EMU duration underweight
Programm zur Förderung von nachhaltigen Finanzierungen und Grünen Anleihen
SUMMARY: Market review: the rebound in risky assets is ongoing, but prices are still below the pre-correction highs / Should we worry about inflation? We see a modest pick-up rather than a take-off / Can equities perform in a rising rate environment? Yes, but typically driven by strengthening earnings growth / Which safe assets can offer protection in Fed tightening cycles? No silver bullet; bonds may not offer shelter
SUMMARY: Global equities sold off aggressively as higher bond yields finally dented the strong January risk rally / The sell-off was triggered by strong hourly earnings data in the US, but its magnitude appears to be exacerbated by market technicals / Solid growth fundamentals and limited contagion from the equity volatility to other markets such as rates, currencies and emerging markets (EM) are consistent with a technical dislocation in markets